There has been a lot of  negative press about Apple’s launch of the iPad.  Some commentators have focused on the name choice.  Others have lamented the lack of features: no multitasking, no video, no touch keyboard, to name just a few.

Missing the point

They’re missing the point about creating new market spaces.  Creating a new market space occurs when you enable new behaviors to emerge in a target population.  Specifically, if your offering (the disruptor) allows people to do something they couldn’t do previously, and many people want to do that, then it takes off.  The new behavior disrupts the norm of how people interact with each other and with space and in so doing, creates new value.

The power of new behavior space

For example, the Blackberry brought us push email.  That allowed us to stay connected everywhere.  New behaviors emerged, not all of them desirable mind you (emailing during a meeting).  This new behavior enabled by the Blackberry disrupted other phones and organizers (the Palm).

iPhone utilized the programmable touch screen.  That allowed more intuitive interfaces and a whole slew of new behaviors to emerge.  Face-Book, Twitter, Traffic alerts, conversion calculators, games, games and more games, etc.  Over 100,000 apps have been created in all sorts of areas with a corresponding increase in new mobile behaviors.

What they, and others (the telephone, steam engines to name a few oldies) did was create new behavior space.  As new behavior space grows, so too new market space grows.

(Behavior space = the number of people x the frequency at which they demonstrate a behavior.)

The iPad’s new behavior space

So what new behavior will the iPad allow to emerge?  When you inspect the core functionality of the iPad through the lens of behavior space you see that it was built primarily for two purposes, both of which do not currently have large “mobile” behavior spaces.

1. Playing games
2. Viewing media content (books, movies, magazines, newspapers, etc.)

Let’s just explore the latter.

Yes, the Kindle and Sony Reader already exist.  However, their adoption rates are small.  They haven’t swept the market.  I suggest two reasons for this lack of explosive growth.

1. Their offering is mostly one dimensional.  They only offer reading.  More critically, there is no obvious path for a potential consumer for new behavior growth. Consequently, potential buyers only have one reason to buy.  Do I want to be able to read in a mobile environment?  If yes they buy.  If no they don’t.  They’ve hung their hat (mostly) on one behavior.
2. Their business model does not include the potential for rapid evolution of content experience.  You can buy a book from Amazon, or you can download it.  In either case the book is largely the same.  Where is the capability to change the nature of the book, or magazine to take advantage of the new technology (disruptor)?

Look at how the iPad value-disrupts

1. iPad offers room for growth.  It has both games and media content (including movies) so it is multi-purposed to begin with.  Combine that with iphone apps and the device has more room to grow.  People will buy the iPad because there is more behavior capability there, and there is an expectation that those capabilities will grow even further.  This is especially true given Apple’s reputation.
2. With the app capabilities expect to see all kinds of new media content.
   • Self book-publishers will now publish their books through the iPad.  I worked with a self-publisher (Dr. Alex Osterwalder) on his recent book Business Model Generation.  Now he can publish on the iPad and make the experience far more interactive and rich.
   • Apps will allow successful bloggers to monetize their blogs.
   • The newspaper industry, which is in death throes, will do what the music industry did – migrate their offering to the iPad.  Some have calculated that printing The NYT costs twice as much as sending every subscriber a free Kindle.  With a multipurpose iPad it will make sense for them to build their own apps for their newspaper.
   • Creative magazines and newspapers will use color, 3G connections, GPS locators, video-play and gaming capabilities to develop an incredibly rich multi-media, multi-connected, location-specific experience to the user.  Think about that for a moment from a behavioral perspective.  What will the world be like when you can be at the corner of Main and Water street in your home town and point to a building and be presented with a multi-media array of games, news, background information, promotions, etc. all relevant to the entities you are pointing at?  Or, imagine what a “NYT experience” could be.  Even better, imagine what a small town paper could do (the Saskatoon Phoenix experience).  How exactly does Kindle compete against that?

The secret to market space is in creating new behavior space through a value disruptor.  The iPad, like the iPhone before it, and the iPod before that, is their next value-disruptor.

Watch the publishing industry be value-disrupted

So, no the iPad is not a replacement for the laptop.  No, it doesn’t do multitasking, or have video, nor phone capabilities.  It doesn’t need to.  It’s going after a much larger market.

100′s of thousands of  iPhone app developers combined with a mobile multi-media device creates the potential for a massive increase in behavior space in the publishing industry.  Apple will do to the publishing industry what they did to the music industry.  They will value-disrupt it.

What new behaviors can you imagine emerging?  In gaming?  In publishing?  How will the business models of publishers change?

You can learn more about value-disruption from the following posts.

1. How to differentiate - a story about a small janitorial firm
2. How LinkedIn is disrupting the recruiting industry
3. Pepsi uses crowdsourcing. Commoditizes Superbowl advertising
4. Will Google’s Nexus disrupt the smart phone industry.  Not yet
5. Companies value-disrupting their markets; a dialogue

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Unpacking stories to find the truth that lies underneath is always fun.  Here’s a story about a janitorial firm in Cincinnati Ohio that is both inspiring and, reveals how to escape commoditization by differentiating.

First the story.  The basic facts are these.

• They are a janitorial firm (since 1972) that service office buildings over 100,000 sq. ft.
• Like companies in the industry, their employees were largely immigrants looking for a first job that could lead them somewhere else.  After all, who wakes up thinking of cleaning toilets as a career?
• They like everyone else suffered from massive turnover – 400% a year (Yes, that’s 100% every 90 days.)
• You can imagine the turmoil and the low, low margins this level of turnover would create.
• So they implemented a bold idea.  They provided a Dream manager for their employees (all of them).   The dream manager met monthly with the employees and helped them articulate their dreams, plan for it, and because a financial component was usually involved, helped them save for it.

Think about the boldness of this idea for just a moment.  How crazy is that?  A dream manager?  Who has ever heard of such a thing.  A company that spends money helping you achieve your dreams?

Back to the story.

• The Dream Manager Program worked. It slowly gained momentum as employees started achieving their dreams.
• It really took off when Rita bought a house.  Then everyone saw that they too, could realize their dreams. (A car, a good education for their kids, a proper Christmas, a vacation back home, simple things many of us take for granted.)
• The results were (are) incredible.  In five years, 2,785 significant dreams were realized, turnover fell to 4%, gross revenue tripled, profits rose every quarter.
• Their costs are lower. Their client satisfaction tops everyone else (As you can imagine, their employees are very loyal and willingly work very, very hard). No competitor can match them.  They are differentiated.
• BTW, there are now 11 full time dream managers on staff.

What does this all mean?  Should we all hire dream managers as part of our business model?

No, not necessarily, but it does teach us an valuable lesson about how to differentiate.  It starts with a new phrase - value-disrupt.

A rose disrupts the moment. To differentiate, disrupt behaviour

Greatness has always disrupted the norm.  From fire to electricity; from writing to the iPod; different objects, different models, different ideas all inspire latent behaviours to willingly emerge that create new value.  (That’s they key!!)

Let’s unpack the story and discover the formula for differentiation.  As we go through the story we underline the elements.

1. Jancoa recognized a human motivation that existed in their target group.  In their case – the motivation of their employees to dream, to hope for a better future.  (While this motivation is universal for most of these immigrant employees they had long since stopped dreaming.  After all, life taught them they would never reach their dreams.)
2. To enable that motivation to express itself they created a disruptor – (The combination of a resource and associated interface)  = the dream manager with the monthly meetings.
3. The value-disruptor provoked a latent behaviour to willingly emerge.  Employees articulated their dream, planned for them and with the help of the dream manager, monitored progress a monthly basis until the dream was realized.  They did so without being coerced.  They wanted to do this.  A latent behaviour willingly emerging is the KEY.  It’s a new behaviour that a target group willingly adopts that causes a disruption to occur.
4. It disrupted the relationship between the employees and the company.  Duh Yeah!  I don’t just clean toilets here.  I make my dreams come alive.
5. That value-disrupted their markets.

So there you have it, the formula for differentiation.  I’ll return to this value-disruption concept in future posts.

Tips on disrupting

1. Focus on the new behaviour you wish to emerge.  As a result of changing your offer will they do different than they did before?
2. Test it for willingness.  Why will the target do it willingly?  To answer this question think about how easy it will be and how strong the motivation is.
3. Finally, remember that technology by itself is useless.  What is the work process that surrounds it that makes it useful?  Fire by itself just burns.  When you have a work process to control fire you have something useful that will value-disrupt.

Many thanks to Alex Manu who introduced me to this concept.

Thank-you for visiting www.ennova.ca.

You can buy their book about their experience here.  It’s a great holiday gift.

Risk is a function of the severity of an adverse event times the probability of the event occurring. A lightening strike is often deadly (very severe). Luckily they happen infrequently. However, a third component influences risk. That is the degree to which a risk itself is knowable.

Lightening strikes are easy to know. We can measure the voltage of typical lightening strikes, and they don’t vary much between strikes (all have high amperage). And because we can understand the risk (i.e. the risk severity and occurrence frequency does not vary much) we can develop standard mitigation responses and then follow-up. Lie down when lightening occurs, don’t hold metal objects, stay in your car where the rubber wheels insulate you, are all mitigation responses.

The steps to mitigate risks in this environment are straightforward.

1. Aware of risk
2. Assess risk
3. Scope the mitigation response
4. Implement mitigation
5. Monitor

But what do you do when the risks themselves are highly variable? When there is a great deal of uncertainty about the risk itself. When the risk itself is unknowable.

For example, Apple launched the iPod in 2003 featuring a device that stored and played songs in MP3 format, where they gave away the software to manage it for free, and were planning to sell the songs for $1 through their Apple Store. They did this in a market dominated by large players who owned the rights to popular songs, where their biggest competitor for selling songs was illegal downloading for free, with a technology that had not yet broken through into the mass market.

Here’s a partial list of highly severe adverse events they faced.

1. Could they convince the owners of the songs to sell them rights to distribute the songs?
2. Would anyone buy the songs given they could download them for free?
3. Would anyone buy the iPod?

Any one of these risks coming to pass would cause a catastrophic failure.

That’s what makes this venture so risky. It’s entirely unique. Nothing about what we know about launching new products can help us predict whether this particular venture will succeed or not.

It’s the uncertainty of the risk itself which multiples the risk and makes it so terrifyingly large. It’s the reason why you can buy insurance against lightening strikes on your building, but you can’t buy insurance for the failure of a product launch. The former is knowable, the latter is not.

The key then for managing in this environment is how you deal with the uncertainties. In projects of this type don’t focus on managing timelines.  Instead, focus on managing the uncertaintites around the risks.

Tips

1. Conduct rapid prototyping to learn your way through the uncertainty.  This means you need to keep your idea and business model flexible.  As you learn your way through the uncertainties you will change your business model as you go.
2. Prioritize your uncertainties.  Which ones are at the root of the problem?  Solve the root uncertainties first. Is it access to songs or people buying?  Does one influence the other?

We’ll return to this topic in later posts.

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