Google’s Nexus is hot.  The question is. . . .  is this a game changing device?  Will it disrupt the Smart Phone industry by bringing in new capabilities that sweep away the incumbents?

Background – Current Share

Research In Motion (39%) continues to be the smart phone market share leader, down 1-pt since our previous survey in September. At the same time, number two Apple (AAPL; 31%) has edged up 1-pt since September. We note that Apple has experienced continuous market share growth every quarter since the iPhone launch two-and-a-half years ago.  Palm (6%), after holding steady in the previous survey, has slid 1-pt since September. (From Cellular news)

Maybe yes?

Google has a loyal following who love everything Google.  So there will definitely be a movement towards them.  Cellular News says  21% of those planning to buy a smart phone in the next 90 days say they’d prefer to have the Android OS on their new phone – a monstrous 15-pt jump in just three months.

To put this in context, three months ago Android OS was tied for last place in consumer preference among the major mobile operating systems. But since then it has surged into second place ahead of all competitors except the iPhone OS X (28%).

But

Buying intentions is one thing.  However, translating intentions into sustainable purchases based on significant differences is a horse of a different color.

DAVID POGUE of the New York Times did a good review of the features and capabilities of the Nexus.  When you read through his article you’re left with the impression that with the exception of “everywhere” voice recognition most all else is a little better or the same as the other features, with the exception of apps where Apple holds the lead.

Why Not Yet.

To disrupt an existing industry you have to create sustainable buzz, as opposed to just marketing buzz.  And sustainable buzz is generated when a latent behavior emerges – when the use of a technology affords the user the possibility of doing something they couldn’t do before that is meaningful, reliable, and accessible.  (Previous posts on disruption  here and here.)

For example, the Blackberry brought us push email.  That allowed us to stay connected everywhere.  New behaviors emerged, not all of them desirable mind you (emailing during a meeting).  This new behavior enabled by the Blackberry disrupted other phones and organizers (the Palm).

iPhone utilized the programmable screen with no keys.  That allowed more intuitive interfaces and a whole slew of new behaviors to emerge.  Face-Book, Twitter, Traffic alerts, conversion calculators, games, games and more games, etc.  Over 100,000 apps have been created in all sorts of areas with a corresponding increase in new behaviors.

Now Nexus has arrived.  Its new capability is voice recognition across all applications.  That means that where users are limited in their ability to type, or interact with the screen they can now use voice commands.  That’s good in the car for example.  So we can expect new behaviors to emerge in hands-free environments, subject to increasing legal restrictions for phone use in the car.

Is that enough to create the buzz?  To see massive movement from iPhone and Blackberry over to Nexus.  It doesn’t seem that there is enough new behavioral capability that would warrant such a move.  Especially when voice recognition reliability is not 100%.  Less than perfection is okay when you ask an app to open.  Not okay when you dictate a letter to a client and it contains errors.

Then Again

But. . . . the big BUT.   Google does have presence.  People will buy the Nexus.  They will become a direct player in the Smart phone industry.

AND, their operating system is open source.  Blackberry and iPhone are not.  With smart-phones only holding about 3% of worldwide market-share (17% North America)  it is entirely possible, (likely?) that from this base their open source developers will develop new disruptive capabilities that Apple and RIM cannot compete with.

So, the battle has begun.  Goggle won’t disrupt with this first addition, but don’t count them out.

Tips for business owners and executives

What can we learn from this story:

1. Not all disruptors have the power to value-disrupt a market.  Nexus everywhere voice recognition by itself is not enough.
2. Sometimes you first need to be playing in a market before you can disrupt it.  So adding a disruptor to your offering let’s you gain fast share and establish your credentials as a player.
3. You need to have a follow-on strategy for how you will ultimately value-disrupt.  Google’s open source operating system, with its faster speed to market for new disruptors, is the play with the potential to give them the leadership in the market.

Thank-you for visiting http://ennova.ca